Joy and frustration: Tourism only works in times of peace

Dear Insider,

The empty stands in the Middle East halls at ITB Berlin this week are a stark reminder of the war in a major region whose tourism revenue is set to collapse dramatically in the coming months. With the US and Israel attacking Iran, the flow of tourists from all feeder markets will stop - from the EU, CIS, India and the GCC states.

Since the beginning of the week, contacts from Dubai and Abu Dhabi have kept me informed about the situation on the ground with up-to-date information and photos; I may quote some of them. In Abu Dhabi, the government communicated the security status to the residents in short, clear formulations, just as the hotels were informed that the costs of stranded guests would be paid by the state. The economic reality is the blatant extreme: The destination loses confidence and tourists, and the value of prime real estate drops dramatically.

One day before the surprise attack, European tourism experts analysed travel behaviour - as usual at ITB. According to their (German) analysis, 2026 is set to be a super year, despite some "backward" trends. It is possible that Europe, and Germany in particular, will once again experience a flood of holidaymakers as a result of the depressing situation in the Middle East. But nothing is guaranteed in this country as long as there is no peace in Ukraine.

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