Editorial

Dear Insider,

There is far too little of the positive these days, so let's start with something motivating and relaxing: The program for our 8th HITT Think Tank on 26/27 May in Brussels is ready. And the title has been decided too: "Nature's Appeal: Can hospitality be regenerative? Risk, Resilience & Innovation." Yes, this time we are focusing on nature conservation, because preserving biodiversity - the absolute basis for life - is now more important than reducing CO2 emissions. Investors and operators are facing new framework conditions: Projects are increasingly dependent on infrastructure, transportation/mobility and supply. How do nature conservation, project development and tourism growth come together? 

On Day 1, our focus on Sustainability, there will be two long discussion rounds with a large circle of experts, including a tourism politician from the EU Commission. Specific names will follow shortly. Our regular guests know: HITT is the ideal environment in which to ask your own questions. The same applies to Day 2, Innovation. We look for the connection between AI and human work, we discuss how much sense and nonsense AI generates and provide comfort with working examples from augmented reality.  You can register now still with the Early Bird discount!

Dear Insider,

Next week the GMs of Kempinski will meet in Istanbul. There, the new Group CEO Barbara Muckermann will introduce herself and her far-reaching plans. In conversation with me, she described the rough framework: The luxury hotel group is to shrink by around a third of the hotels, dull 5-star hotels will be weeded out and only ultra-luxury gems will survive. Residences will be reduced, the management company should become asset-heavy. So again upheaval, again uncertainty. Why is the former cruise manager presenting such a dramatic change in strategy after just eight months in office? The shareholders from Bahrain have allegedly approved everything. But what do they really want to achieve? Perhaps peppering the management company with trophy assets, then selling the real estate at a high price and leaving the operator standing? I did a lot of research. 

The world apparently only knows extremes and disruption: first smash all the china, then build on the broken pieces. This is also the approach of the Trump administration. It does not want any "climate assets" or green financing. And warns the largest banks in the US not to resist. BlackRock is still holding out. However, European banks could also find themselves in a quandary.

Dear Insider,

Travel is booming and will continue to do so in 2025, despite Trump's whims. This week, the most important institutions have trumpeted this message out to the big wide world: International tourism has finally overcome the pandemic (UN), Travel is booming as an escape from the reality of life (analyses from Austria), the hospitality industry is losing out, but tourism is booming (Germany)... The Austrians were already investing significantly more in hotels in 2024, and a strong upswing is driving massive investments in the new mega-trend of camping, glamping & co - worldwide. Luxury cabins and tents are set to triple in value by 2032! Macy Marvel presents the major camping providers in Europe, including some chains with outdoor fever. 

That's why Franck Gervais is also hyper-positive: The CEO led Europe's largest holiday park provider, the Pierre & Vacances Center Parcs Group (PVCP), from severe financial difficulties back to profit. The increase in revenue is due to higher brand standards, digitisation and the popularity of outdoor holidays. In addition to apartments, there are now cheaper and more expensive cabins and wooden houses, all of which are sustainable. A new price ticket from Comfort to Premium to VIP rooms now hangs on every door. Sarah Douag interviewed the CEO.

Dear Insider,

Forecasts and bare facts, that's how every year begins. But one thing is already changing from my perspective: The future of the industry is increasingly dependent on strategies and decisions over which hoteliers and investors have little or no influence. Taking the Netherlands and Great Britain as examples, we see today how the state is attempting to fill its empty coffers at the expense of tourism and the hotel industry. The Dutch government plans to increase VAT on overnight stays from 9% to 21% in 2026. The hoteliers will lose guests, employees and even investors, while the OTAs will gain. The UK government, on the other hand, will exert even more pressure: Britain is set to increase national insurance contributions from employers by 75%. This will hit part-time employees especially hard. Just two examples from a dangerous game with fire in two countries. Read it yourself!

For political decisions, entrepreneurs often have to take long-term risks. When things get tight, there is a risk of insolvency. Experts predict that insolvencies will increase drastically in Germany in 2025, particularly in the hospitality industry, but now also among the supposedly stable hotel groups. Insolvency under the debtor-in-possession rules may well be the last resort. What strategies will insolvency administrators use and how do they approach their job? To what extent do they take responsibility, for whom and what? We spoke to the Hanover-based law firm Anchor about this - chosen because it does not have any hospitality clients and is therefore unbiased in its response.

Dear Insider,

This week's biggest package comes from the German Lindner Hotels AG: News is that it will send 13 problem hotels (from a portfolio of 41 in total) into self-administered insolvency. The hope is that the hotels will be rehabilitated within just months. Christmas brings calm to a difficult and confused situation. The first meetings with creditors is set to take place on 6 January. Susanne Stauss and I have collected snippets. 

The Lindner case is the third insolvency (in self-administration) of a major German group, after Achat Hotels (in November) and arcona Hotels in 2023; the latter are back on the market after being restructured. They all suffered and still suffer - presumably - from the same cause: excessive lease agreements. Germany's old drama, but always home-made.             

We are a long way away from Christmas fairy tales this year. Heart rates continue to race. 

Dear Insider,

Airbnb is now threatening Europe with its "Friendly Apartments", starting in London. These are positioned directly between residential and commercial properties. The platform wants to kill both in one fell swoop. From January 2025, Paris will make it harder for hosts and will mandate shorter rental periods as well as introduce high penalties and taxes. This uncontrollable power must be broken: During the Olympic Games, listings in Ile-de-France shot up from 58,000 to 134,000. New York, on the other hand, is still (far too) soft on Airbnb, despite the rules.

Medium-sized Italian chains are currently also feeling the power of the big players, but in a positive sense. The sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia (PIF) is pushing the Rocco Forte Group, Blackstone is supporting the Mangia's Group and wealthy families are investing huge sums in the new Orient Express Dolce Vita Train. There are to be 25 trains, one costing a whopping 50 million euros. But the return will come within 2.5 years....

Dear Insider,

Have you heard of "The Unconference"? This is the subtitle of Hotels Tomorrow, the new Europe-focused conference in Paris that I will be organising together with Marc Werner and Marius Gomola on 17-18 February.  The "three M's" want a relaxed event format and lots of interaction - not mega, just good. Café & croissants give way to in-depth topics from investment, finance, operations, ESG, distribution, talents & people, various markets and more. It's not quantity that counts, but quality. 30-, 60- or 90-minute talks are there so that we learn from each other. There are also no CEOs in six-packs on stage. HOT selects.                                       

On today's edition: Fred Fettner jumped to the top of the Alps to see how prices for tourist real estate were rising in the valley below. A report for investors and tourism professionals shows: Austria is top, but the United States and Switzerland do better still.

Dear Insider,

Sometimes it would be great to have a crystal ball. What's next - and what will the year 2025 bring? In the face of such uncertainty, many hotel chains struggle with budgeting. The cost balance is most delicate in the DACH region. Susanne Stauss asked Gorgeous Smiling Hotels, Althoff Hotels, SV Hotel, Meliá, Leonardo and Motel One how they manage the cost balancing act. The new "Treugast Hospitality Index" also reflects the current dynamics and drama in the industry.                          

The stumbling blocks are piling up. The fact that Achat Hotels has filed for insolvency, as was announced yesterday, is a further signal of how serious the economic situation is for the players. In 2023, together with B&B Hotels, Achat was still the fastest-growing hotel chain in Germany. And now this.            

Dear Insider, 

These turbulent times can be overcome with a clear strategy, pursuing one direction or one extreme. Investors in Italy don't want either/or, some want asset-light and asset-heavy. No matter what, the main thing is to expand. Covivio from France, Omnam from Israel, Limestone, Gruppo Una, Alpitour, Starhotels: All of them continue to grow, mostly in niches and with their nose to the competition's plan.         

This picture also applies to the brand landscape. In another discussion, chairman Thomas Edelkamp from Romantik Hotels pointed out why private hotels are undermining the credibility of chain brands. Investors finance models, local banks finance concrete operations. Chains reach their guests through programmes, private hotels through enjoyment. Accor and Minor defended their strategies, while Limehome failed to shine despite its superlatives.           

Dear Insider, 

Let's begin today with Germany - no, not with politics. That’s just not worth it (anymore) anyway. Though certainly, our irresponsible politicians in Berlin could learn a lot from risk-taking hotel entrepreneurs, from their visions, their passion and the platforms with which they will grow. Ruslan Husry wants to make his HR Group "too big to fail". That is why he wants to complete the takeover of two hotel groups this year - and more will follow. One of these is H-Hotels with over 60 hotels. As reported in Breaking News yesterday evening, they've fired their CEO Thomas Haas. Why? That is not clear.

Before we found out about this personnel matter, I had a conversation with Ruslan Husry, who buys small and medium-sized hotel groups at high speed. We got caught up in the rumours about his financial strength - today though, his answers are very clear. He is massively expanding and converting HRG and will now quickly grow from over 200 to almost 300 hotels.