Editorial

Dear Insider,

Dubai has come to a standstill. The hum of business, the underlying sound of this glittering city, has faded away.  The Dubai Mall, the motorways, hotels and swimming pools – there are vast stretches that are completely deserted. Sarah Douag has brought lots of photos with her: She was there last week. She met with Henk Meyknecht, CEO of the private equity firm SAH, Duncan O'Rourke, Accor’s CEO for MEA & APAC, Joachim Hafner, General Manager of the Mandarin Oriental Downtown, and consultant Hans Peter Betz, and reports on the industry’s severe downturn, the cash flow of hotels, the decline in property values and how staff are being managed.

One evening at 6 pm, a taxi driver picked Sarah up: She was his second passenger that day. Someone else suggested they have lunch at the Burj Khalifa the next day: It now costs just €28 there.

Despite everything though: Both Emiratis and expats remain optimistic. Dubai will bounce back (soon). Why? Everyone believes in this city’s vision; the success of recent decades is literally set in stone, in buildings that reach up to the sky… Once again, they are grateful to their Emir, who allayed the population's fears during the first days of the attack – through clear announcements and messages sent via smartphone. Do take the time to read this eight-page, insightful report by Sarah. You can't get any more first-hand live updates from this crisis-hit region at the moment.

Dear Insider,

It is certainly unusual to read in the quarterly results of tourism companies how much kerosene TUI, for example, has secured for its summer season. Or, to put it another way – in a positive sense – Scandic emphasises that it is not suffering directly from the geopolitical situation. The chains are also remaining cautious, as Accor, Scandic, TUI and GHA all indicate in their Q1 results. The Iran conflict has everyone on edge, all over the world. In Germany, the first tour operators and travel agencies are announcing short-time working.

The World Cup drama has begun in the USA. In Philadelphia, FIFA cancelled 2,000 of the 10,000 rooms it had booked. Thousands of hotel rooms have been cancelled across all 16 World Cup host cities. Bookings are falling short of forecasts; ordinary fans can no longer afford the prices, but there aren't yet large numbers of high-spending fans either. The golden summer has been cancelled. MAGA.

Back to Germany, where the business travel market is changing. It is the small changes that show that cost control is currently the top priority. That means, for example, flying less and taking the train more. Or travel, yes, but no longer within their own country; they'd rather visit the (cheaper) neighbouring countries. In Austria, business travellers could give the hospitality industry a boost: The pressure on this sector is also intense, as the figures show.

Dear Insider,

The Revo insolvency proceedings are currently in Phase 2, which, with the 'newly opened' insolvency hotels, also provides somewhat more transparency. At the same time, creditors are beginning to lodge their claims. Potential buyers move in the background. It is still unclear whether some are readying to acquire Revo Hospitality or whether the whole thing will end in a break-up. The two leading hotel insolvency lawyers spoke to the media, and we also spoke to other insiders.

What's the evidence? The topic of longevity is just as controversial, but it's a hype created by marketing. In TV adverts, toothpaste is already promising a longer life… My equally sceptical colleague Bärbel Schwertfeger interviewed an even more sceptical scientist from the Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing in Cologne, Germany. He points out that the striking results seen in mice that have received the 'longevity vaccine' but warns that the same results in people keen to live longer might still be a little way off yet. Let the facts speak for themselves! My grandmother already knew some of that too. A must-read for wellness hotels.

New brands and people are shaping the Italian hospitality industry. Are you already familiar with Raro Resorts plans, the new operator LVRH, Le Graal as a luxury hotel partner, or UNA as a proponent of management contracts? Massimiliano Sarti knows all about them.

Dear Insider,

Airlines are changing their routes; these changes are affecting destination markets; in the Middle East, hotel occupancy rates are falling sharply, in Greece, bookings are reportedly stalling; and the governments of Dubai, Cyprus and Egypt are beginning to provide financial support to hotels and tourism companies. The chaos and tension surrounding the Iran conflict continue.

This makes the brief item in today's News Mix all the more baffling, to put it politely: The city of Cluj-Napoca in Romania is preparing the first stage of planning permission for a Trump Tower comprising 250 apartments and a 150-room luxury hotel.

Despite the crisis, business carries on as usual, as Susanne Stauss and I gathered from our many conversations in Berlin. International chains continue to adapt their strategies, sometimes in a rather dull way, sometimes in a lively one. We listened to Hyatt, Minor, Leonardo, the Vienna Tourist Board, Accor, Marriott and UBM. Everyone wants to fill every niche. The craze for brands continues, as does the appeal of franchising.

The chains are now desperate for independent hotels and want to make their soft brands even more flexible. Villa Viva might well have fitted into this category – hotels as "social guesthouses", a perfect, alternative product for investors and operators keen on niche markets, such as Stephan Gerhard. But franchise is not his cup of tea.

Dear Insider,

The mood at the IHIF in Berlin this week was subdued, with hotel investors and operators expressing serious concerns. The unpredictable US-Iran conflict is once again taking a heavy toll on the industry. What do the global and regional CEOs of major chains have to say? There are no longer any safe markets; new travel trends are winding their way through new landscapes; holidays in the Middle East are shifting to the Far East… The industry is re-adjusting but is responding with a level head. It has learnt from the Covid pandemic.

During the day, the IHIF venue felt rather empty; those who hadn’t bought tickets gathered outside the InterContinental to have a chat, and in the evening, the "family" ended up meeting up at a number of events around town. Unfortunately, Revo Hospitality’s long-running and popular party did not take place… Incidentally, interested investors are today submitting their bids for the insolvent Revo hotels.

Radisson CEO Federico González, for his part, does not wish to demonise any operator. With 75 contracts, Germany is the largest lease market, he has nothing against that. It's all a question of details and honest dealing.  And a good mix! Radisson manages 50% of its properties itself, refines its 10 brands without needing to create new ones, and only operates in locations where the owner has paid a realistic price for the property. In an interview with me, he also explains why Jin Jiang’s two subsidiaries, Radisson and Louvre, will not be merging.

Dear Insider,

The Iran conflict is leaving its mark every day, all over the world. MIPIM in Cannes was noticeably quieter than usual, and the Arabian Travel Market (essentially the Arab equivalent of ITB) has been rescheduled from May to October. We are keen to see how many investors, operators and other hospitality stakeholders will be attending the IHIF investment forum in Berlin from Monday. We report. 

Today: Beatrix Boutonnet describes the "new" real estate sector – one that is returning to reality and discovering new opportunities: Standard financing options are a thing of the past, but there are new alternatives. The yachts in Cannes are also adjusting to the reality: They’ve become smaller, there are fewer parties, and people are being more cautious again. Amazing: Germany and the hotel asset class were viewed thoroughly positively.

The new brand Nook aims to establish itself as a "non-hotel" through crowdfunding: This is a spiritual place for like-minded people, for social gatherings and off-site events. The similarity to the former Selina concept for digital nomads is no coincidence. Behind this are German hotel chains, hostels and co-living hoteliers. 

Dear Insider,

Cash flow is King. Hotel operators are the focus of credit checks - a consequence of the ongoing insolvencies in Germany. This turns the tables again: Those who scaled up the fastest in the past secured market share and did not (or no longer) care about profitability. Now, financiers are becoming more conservative again. Capital discipline is the new buzzword. Our financial expert Beatrix Boutonnet explains in detail how the screws have continued to turn. It's time to say bye-bye to the boom. 

The desire for value-add and core assets may remain, but success lies in many subtleties, as the Omnam Group is also making clear to us today. The financially strong Israeli investor and developer has chosen Italy as its core market.

The Middle East will now also experience what capital discipline means - and perseverance. In their forecast for the region, the WTTC and other data analysts talk about alarming negative figures. Just one: Revenue losses are expected to stand at around $600 million per day in the current year. The Iran conflict is now even being mirrored in Switzerland and other countries. We have compiled some new examples.

Dear Insider,

The empty stands in the Middle East halls at ITB Berlin this week are a stark reminder of the war in a major region whose tourism revenue is set to collapse dramatically in the coming months. With the US and Israel attacking Iran, the flow of tourists from all feeder markets will stop - from the EU, CIS, India and the GCC states. 

Since the beginning of the week, contacts from Dubai and Abu Dhabi have kept me informed about the situation on the ground with up-to-date information and photos; I may quote some of them. In Abu Dhabi, the government communicated the security status to the residents in short, clear formulations, just as the hotels were informed that the costs of stranded guests would be paid by the state. The economic reality is the blatant extreme: The destination loses confidence and tourists, and the value of prime real estate drops dramatically.

One day before the surprise attack, European tourism experts analysed travel behaviour - as usual at ITB. According to their (German) analysis, 2026 is set to be a super year, despite some "backward" trends. It is possible that Europe, and Germany in particular, will once again experience a flood of holidaymakers as a result of the depressing situation in the Middle East. But nothing is guaranteed in this country as long as there is no peace in Ukraine.

Dear Insider,

Imagine that you, as a hotel owner, do not receive any rent for three years. Around one million euros are lost every month. This is what happened to Deka Immobilien, the tenant was/is Liran Wizman's Sircle Collection. The hotel: the W Amsterdam. This week, the court ordered the Sircle Collection to vacate the hotel 15 days after the judgment was signed. But that probably won't happen. A curious story with an open end. And I ask the question again - in the mist of the Revo insolvency: Why do owners/investors put up with this? 

The next story won't save the industry's reputation either. Imagine you have bought an apartment in the Austrian Alps. Is this your main, secondary, work or leisure residence? This may just be a tax issue. However, the locals see this as "cold beds" and reject investments in tourism real estate. This is precisely where the residential market collides with the tourist market, where hoteliers would also like to build more apartments. "Buy2let" is the name of this Austrian specialty that nobody likes anymore. Fred Fettner provides the details.

Dear Insider,

The logic of Revo Hospitality in the last press release two weeks ago was not quite clear to me: The original 125 insolvencies under self-administration suddenly jumped to 175. Our inquiry was answered properly. 

At the same time, I asked the Berlin insolvency law firm Anchor - which has no hospitality clients - whether the (Revo) procedure, which now involves five experts (lawyers), is justified and whether the measures are proportionate. Real estate expert Nicole Riedemann has shed light on a number of points. 

And I can offer you even more transparency today: We have an up-to-date list of about 150 Revo companies affected, which we are publishing today. In addition, Wyndham made its first public statement about the Revo insolvency as part of its 2025 balance sheet presentation. The world's largest franchisor has invested $160 million in Revo. Was that all key money? 

The world keeps turning, dear readers. This is how "a little Italian" gets started: the 15-year-old AG Group. The Group pushed its way through Covid on its own steam, now it wants to grow via white label and attract well-known global luxury lifestyle brands (Accor, Hyatt) to the country. And the majority of its guests are already international.