Editorial

Dear Insider,

The AI bubble will burst, the only question is when. Our author Sarah Douag put this sentence at the beginning of her article today. Why? The AI bubble is now 17 times bigger than the dotcom bubble, warns the International Monetary Fund. Critics also note that far too much money is being invested in the "AI" niche. Investors include tech companies from the hospitality industry such as RateGain and Mews, which have invested in takeovers, but Marriott, Accor, Iberostar and others are also investing in this field. 

Everyone is betting on growth, all around the globe. The biggest beneficiary of the massive increase in investment in AI applications and data centres is the American chip giant Nvidia. It was the first company to reach a market capitalisation of $5 trillion in October. By way of comparison: The GDP of Germany as a whole was €4.3 trillion in 2024.

If the global chip manufacturer coughs, the whole bubble wobbles. Fortunately, it was able to report positive Q3 results yesterday. Nevertheless, the heat remains. In this international context, Sarah's brand-new article today is a big win.

Dear Insider,

The US shutdown came to an end yesterday after 43 days. Hotels lost USD 31 million per day in the most important weeks before the festive season. Over 6.7 million overnight stays have been lost. Now the hotels are slipping, their liquidity is melting away. Many operators can no longer pay their fixed costs. Occupancy and revenue will only recover in the next quarter - if there is no renewed shutdown in January. 

Central Europe is in crisis for other reasons, while South East Europe is celebrating: The lust for leisure is rising in Albania (the second airport has already been built), Greece is all smiles and Croatia wants to become a year-round destination. Along with the superlatives come discussions about the first limits to growth. 

Germany also remains in demand - from foreign groups. CityBox Hotels from Norway, with only ten hotels in the Nordics, wants to integrate its budget brand into premium city locations. In all major cities. A portrait with Facts & Figures. And more from the north: The four-way deal between Pandox, Eiendomsspar, Dalata and Scandic is now official. It will be exciting to follow this integration. 

Dear Insider,

The image of the carrot in front of the donkey's nose hits a sore spot in franchise deals: Key money is not cash for self-service, but a loan that must be repaid. In addition, hoteliers are considering shorter contract terms and no longer believe unconditionally in the distribution power of franchisors and their brands. "We have to become more flexible, think in new ways," said investor representative Martin Schaller from Union Investment, calling on everyone to do the same. Hyatt, Maritim, Louvre and Borealis threw themselves passionately into the discussion at the Expo Real conference four weeks ago. Susanne Stauss reports. 

Raúl Gonzalez, CEO EMEA of the Spanish Barceló Group, is also putting a lot of energy into planning the European expansion. It will be clear and sprinkled with opportunities. It's now finally getting going, with the Central European countries first, with Leisure and a billion-heavy budget for the next three years alone. As regards the various contracts, he has his own view: Before he signs bad contracts, he prefers to buy real estate. I met him last week in Paris. 

The Amsterdam architect Sanne van der Burgh, who we have already introduced as a lively lateral thinker, has now presented "CarbonSpace" to Sarah Douag - a new carbon calculator that hoteliers and architects can use right from the start of the planning process. It is an open-source tool, free of charge and easy to use.  

Dear Insider,

Family offices like hotels because hotels also convey a passion for entrepreneurship, as well as values and lifestyle. That's why the family offices don't abandon them during the crisis. "They are always there and have never left," Philipp Linder from Hotour recently summed it up in a conversation. There are around 13,000 of these investment-minded asset managers in the German-speaking Europe, but they value discretion and avoid the limelight. This makes it all the more interesting what Beatrix Boutonnet found in a Family Office Real Estate Report. These investors are also broadening their perspective.

David Etmenan, founder and CEO of Novum Hospitality, has - as everyone knows - been connected to "the IHG system" for 1.5 years. Measures are slowly beginning to take effect, and slight increases in RevPAR are visible. But he still has to exercise patience himself. "We are still in the onboarding process." 84 hotels have been integrated so far. He feels that he is in good hands at IHG and is putting all the more energy into his new role as developer and creator of an owner-operator platform. He is now building up his own pipeline via Novum Real Estate. It is growing. He has passed his personal stress test.

Unfortunately, the German market is still undergoing its own version. And that's how it is for many managers in the endless wave of suffering. Employees often don't realise the stress their bosses are under, but they feel it. According to a study, 43% of them resign if their boss is of the authoritarian type.

Dear Insider,

The dream of permanently rising room rates is over. Leisure is the only way to earn money. And do the investors even know who their new operator will be after a takeover? The "zero profit" discussion at the Expo Real conference showed in very many ways how the operational side is struggling. The misery goes round in circles. 

First Love Brand, then Branded Residence. Apparently, some brands are making residence buyers and occupants happy after all. As of this year, Accor has been pushing the topic of private living on a massive scale: for a longer stay and comfortable living alongside the hotel brand and enjoying its services. A wealthy young generation of business nomads and mixed use make it possible. And Accor is, as far as I can see, the first chain to break the original luxury model down to midscale. A ray of hope. 

The sun has been shining over Hotusa again since this summer. The purchase of nine Silken hotels was the signal that the Spanish group had worked off its €241 million Covid loan. Scalability is back: Quietly, Hotusa has built 178 hotels in Spain and over 260 properties in 19 countries through Eurostars. And once again, it pays off that Hotusa still has its own (!) OTA inhouse. Sarah Douag took a closer look at this relatively unknown company. From debtor to deal maker.

Dear Insider,

The Expo Real is over. And we're doing a short wrap-up including statements and summaries of the latest transaction figures. Ten days after the Expo (yesterday), Whitbread is buying 1,538 rooms for the Premier Inn brand from Gorgeous Smiling Hotels, franchise-free. Wyndham is losing five Super 8, Accor 1 Mercure and GSH 2 hotels under its own elaya brand.

So it's not just hungry Pac-Men who are out and about these days, but also truffle hunters. These also include Motel One, which announced the takeover of six good Fleming Hotels on the first day of the trade fair. Are Motel One/Cloud One and Premier Inn now on the same path? And where is Accor?

Many Spaniards can no longer afford to take holidays on their own islands, as our summer season review found out five weeks ago. And it's set to get even worse: Investors allocate 70% of their capital to 4- and 5-star assets. 3-star hotels are following suit. Everything is only going upwards, and fast...

Dear Insider,

The noise level in the Expo Real halls was already high on the first morning. On the second day, the suburban trains were hopelessly jammed... Messe München counted over 42,000 visitors, more than expected. There was a need to talk everywhere. The asset class Hotel remains coveted by investors, although new projects, especially resorts, have currently been declared dead. For operators, Hotel have become a problem child. Zero profit makes everyone tremble, as does the high-speed market cleanse. Expansion is only possible in the "operator buys operator" style. Germany is currently considered a very difficult country. But non-Germans continue to believe in Europe’s largest market.

Foreign investors are already on the starting blocks, as they were after Lehman: They are waiting for Pac-Man. He's still hungry. What he leaves on the plate will still be picked up? In the discussions at the hotel conference, you could feel the tugging and pulling from all sides. Franchise: fees must be reduced, contracts shortened. Lease: Can the investor defend himself if a new, unwanted brand comes in after the change of operator? We still have a lot to report from the highly interesting discussions at the very well-attended "Hospitality Industry Dialogue" conference. Susanne Stauss starts today with a five-page, detailed description about the market cleanse and recorded the experiences of seven executives from Covivio, Art-Invest, Whitbread, Revo Hospitality, IHG, Motel One and Erste Group.

Treugast made headlines with its annual "Investment Rating". The Munich-based consultants withdrew the rating of Europe's fastest expanding hotel group, Revo Hospitality. The media greedily soaked up this headline, while at Expo Real there was discussion as to whether Treugast's reasoning was damaging to business or not. Revo's expansion does indeed raise many questions, but only facts, not more rumours, can provide answers. 

Dear Insider,

"We are focusing". I've heard this phrase a lot in the last few months. Yes, Expo Real Munich is starting in three days, a pulse meter for investors, developers and operators. Many of our readers focus on this trade fair. How do we get out of the crisis? Answer: By focusing on the core of the business and through a high degree of flexibility.

There are no blueprints for deals any more; every project must be assessed, individually and intensively, by all parties involved. An analysis of European transactions in the first half of this year shows: Individual transactions beat portfolios. The Lifestyle Hospitality Capital Group, Accor, Motel One and Limehome have already discussed "new" deals at the Hotels Tomorrow Unconference in Paris. The perfect deal no longer exists. In uncertain times, only solid contracts, opportunistic investments and efficiency win. Beatrix Boutonnet is encouraging.

Scandic Hotels is also focusing. The largest chain in the Nordics, with 280 hotels neither small nor very large, has now opened seven hotels in Germany, step by step. Their home region will remain the driving force, even with another 54 European properties from the Dalata deal to be added next year. COO Laura Tarkka gives us an insight into the priorities of the Scandinavian chain, for which the mid-market segment alone still offers enormous opportunities.

Dear Insider,

Forget the performance data, concentrate on revenue per square meter (RevPSM). Nothing new for Insiders, but it is becoming a strategy in the Netherlands. Because costs are mounting up and VAT will rise to 21% from 2026, every square meter must either generate revenue or improve the guest experience. This is a blatant change in thinking, but perhaps also the right one. 

The involvement of AI in the search for illegal accommodation in Ibiza was crass, but also very sensible. Within a year, the new technology helped to track down over 2,800 accommodations with over 14,500 beds. Mallorca already wants to adopt the Ibiza model. Sarah Douag tracked down both topics - well worth reading.

Macy Marvel returned from Nantucket Island, this year's most expensive summer destination, an hour's flight from New York. Exclusively for us, he collected voices on the current "state of the nation" in this idyll of the rich and famous. Huge yachts symbolize the one pole, a raid by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) with the arrest of 12 workers the other. The nation is no longer "united", MAGA is crumbling. 

Dear Insider,

The programme of the Expo Real hotel conference reads almost like a crisis plan. At least that's how I felt today, now that the topics have been finalised and we're waiting for the last few confirmations (details and names on our public Marketplace and, of course, on the Expo Real website). The sector is undergoing structural change, which is why there is a push and pull in the market, and this is also reflected in today's issue. 

Attention to employees has developed positively. No service means no additional sales. This is why employers are - finally - becoming more self-critical. And the younger investors listen in curiously. While the wise men are still chasing the double-digit ROI, the young now define "human capital" differently. Our 90-minute breakout session at Hotels Tomorrow in June was a test balloon for this topic; it flew. 

The partial collapse of the summer season, which we reported on last week, is also leading to questions about even more reliable forecasts. Last-minute and last-second bookings are already part of everyday life, but how can hotels benefit from short-term redirected travel flows? By analysing flight data, they can. These can be broken down to hotel level. Wouldn't you like to know how many more breakfast tables you can set in November?