Editorial

Dear Insider,

The noise level in the Expo Real halls was already high on the first morning. On the second day, the suburban trains were hopelessly jammed... Messe München counted over 42,000 visitors, more than expected. There was a need to talk everywhere. The asset class Hotel remains coveted by investors, although new projects, especially resorts, have currently been declared dead. For operators, Hotel have become a problem child. Zero profit makes everyone tremble, as does the high-speed market cleanse. Expansion is only possible in the "operator buys operator" style. Germany is currently considered a very difficult country. But non-Germans continue to believe in Europe’s largest market.

Foreign investors are already on the starting blocks, as they were after Lehman: They are waiting for Pac-Man. He's still hungry. What he leaves on the plate will still be picked up? In the discussions at the hotel conference, you could feel the tugging and pulling from all sides. Franchise: fees must be reduced, contracts shortened. Lease: Can the investor defend himself if a new, unwanted brand comes in after the change of operator? We still have a lot to report from the highly interesting discussions at the very well-attended "Hospitality Industry Dialogue" conference. Susanne Stauss starts today with a five-page, detailed description about the market cleanse and recorded the experiences of seven executives from Covivio, Art-Invest, Whitbread, Revo Hospitality, IHG, Motel One and Erste Group.

Treugast made headlines with its annual "Investment Rating". The Munich-based consultants withdrew the rating of Europe's fastest expanding hotel group, Revo Hospitality. The media greedily soaked up this headline, while at Expo Real there was discussion as to whether Treugast's reasoning was damaging to business or not. Revo's expansion does indeed raise many questions, but only facts, not more rumours, can provide answers. 

Dear Insider,

"We are focusing". I've heard this phrase a lot in the last few months. Yes, Expo Real Munich is starting in three days, a pulse meter for investors, developers and operators. Many of our readers focus on this trade fair. How do we get out of the crisis? Answer: By focusing on the core of the business and through a high degree of flexibility.

There are no blueprints for deals any more; every project must be assessed, individually and intensively, by all parties involved. An analysis of European transactions in the first half of this year shows: Individual transactions beat portfolios. The Lifestyle Hospitality Capital Group, Accor, Motel One and Limehome have already discussed "new" deals at the Hotels Tomorrow Unconference in Paris. The perfect deal no longer exists. In uncertain times, only solid contracts, opportunistic investments and efficiency win. Beatrix Boutonnet is encouraging.

Scandic Hotels is also focusing. The largest chain in the Nordics, with 280 hotels neither small nor very large, has now opened seven hotels in Germany, step by step. Their home region will remain the driving force, even with another 54 European properties from the Dalata deal to be added next year. COO Laura Tarkka gives us an insight into the priorities of the Scandinavian chain, for which the mid-market segment alone still offers enormous opportunities.

Dear Insider,

Forget the performance data, concentrate on revenue per square meter (RevPSM). Nothing new for Insiders, but it is becoming a strategy in the Netherlands. Because costs are mounting up and VAT will rise to 21% from 2026, every square meter must either generate revenue or improve the guest experience. This is a blatant change in thinking, but perhaps also the right one. 

The involvement of AI in the search for illegal accommodation in Ibiza was crass, but also very sensible. Within a year, the new technology helped to track down over 2,800 accommodations with over 14,500 beds. Mallorca already wants to adopt the Ibiza model. Sarah Douag tracked down both topics - well worth reading.

Macy Marvel returned from Nantucket Island, this year's most expensive summer destination, an hour's flight from New York. Exclusively for us, he collected voices on the current "state of the nation" in this idyll of the rich and famous. Huge yachts symbolize the one pole, a raid by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) with the arrest of 12 workers the other. The nation is no longer "united", MAGA is crumbling. 

Dear Insider,

The programme of the Expo Real hotel conference reads almost like a crisis plan. At least that's how I felt today, now that the topics have been finalised and we're waiting for the last few confirmations (details and names on our public Marketplace and, of course, on the Expo Real website). The sector is undergoing structural change, which is why there is a push and pull in the market, and this is also reflected in today's issue. 

Attention to employees has developed positively. No service means no additional sales. This is why employers are - finally - becoming more self-critical. And the younger investors listen in curiously. While the wise men are still chasing the double-digit ROI, the young now define "human capital" differently. Our 90-minute breakout session at Hotels Tomorrow in June was a test balloon for this topic; it flew. 

The partial collapse of the summer season, which we reported on last week, is also leading to questions about even more reliable forecasts. Last-minute and last-second bookings are already part of everyday life, but how can hotels benefit from short-term redirected travel flows? By analysing flight data, they can. These can be broken down to hotel level. Wouldn't you like to know how many more breakfast tables you can set in November?  

Dear Insider,

Change is here, holiday patterns are collapsing... These are the headlines of the two articles about the current summer season. Four authors describe the mood in eight countries (Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, France, Belgium and the Netherlands). No country is cheering, the positive news is always followed by a "but". Germany is moving backwards, which was to be expected. Italians are looking forward to summer, but the mountains are taking over from the beaches. Spain remains the sunshine of Europe, France gets a cold shower.

What moved me: The Spaniards and the French complain that they can no longer afford an island holiday in their own country. Is this the next trigger for even more protests against tourism? One thing has bothered me for a long while: Time and again, associations such as hotel groups draw comparisons between 2025 and pre-Covid. Hello! This no longer works. Today, the hotel industry operates in a completely different environment; an environment that in 2019 certainly could not have even been imagined. Let’s put an end to these illogical conclusions! Brilliant figures in large volumes secure the show, but not the profit backstage.

In Italy, international hotel investors are already channelling their capital into fewer and new segments, e.g. outdoor tourism, new types of hostels, branded residences and serviced apartments. In a nutshell: They invest for those on a smaller budget as well as for the bulging wallets of the wealthy. Capital follows the social divide. Massimiliano Sarti on the latest real estate trend in his home country.

Dear Insider,

A year ago, hoteliers were still fiddling around with ChatGPT on the sofa, but now the AI assistants proliferate, each one better than the one before. It's about power over travel bookings. SEO, the internet search engine that everyone had to feed with buzzwords for years to generate clicks, is now just the fodder for GEO: for that AI colleague that can immediately provide answers and offers to the web surfer. The term for this is Generative Engine Optimisation. Today, our AI-expert Catherine Bouchon explains the advantages and disadvantages of GEO. Only the best stories will win. 

The story of the aparthotel provider Staycity is simple: It is based on one company, two brands, three apartment sizes and a kitchenette in every apartment. The two growth drivers are Staycity and Wilde. With a more flexible ground floor, more service, more food and more quality, the twin sisters are becoming more visible in Europe, always in key cities, please. The profit margin is fantastic.  

Adrian Lindner is a long way from dreaming. He does not want to expand at present but wants to further stabilise the restructured Lindner Group in Germany. The hotel operator is out of insolvency under the debtor-in-possession rules. He wants to rebuild trust in the market. The designated new CEO (35), the third generation in the large Lindner family, was involved from the outset as "insolvency project manager". And as a manager, he admits self-critically and with unexpected frankness to "many mistakes" in our very first conversation. And that the family has lost its closeness to the company. 

Dear Insider,

I saw them myself two weeks ago: the countless unoccupied beach loungers on the Italian Mediterranean coast. For me, it's the vacation picture of the year. Neither locals nor tourists want to pay over €30 and certainly not €50 or €60 per day for sun loungers and umbrellas. The evidence lies a few meters away in the sand: on the towel, under your own little parasol, like sardines in a tin next to each other. It's cheaper.

In today's extremely comprehensive issue after the summer break, this topic pops up again and again, including in the eight chain balance sheets of recent weeks as well as in medium-sized hotel groups. Consumption is falling, demand is beginning to crumble. It can no longer be overlooked or ignored.

Don't cry, read on. I have a good mood topic for the Booking.com haters among you. At least 15,000 hotels have so far joined the pan-European class action against the OTA and the best price clause, HOTREC reported yesterday. These include the largest chains in Europe as well small guesthouses. The lead lawyer behind this lawsuit and coordinator of previous Booking proceedings is very, very confident of winning this case. The antitrust lawyer from the renowned German law firm Schneider Geiwitz & Partner explains his logic in a six-page interview. He expects a "ten-digit figure" as compensation. Billions are at stake.

Dear Insider,

Today we head into our summer break, presumably with the same question many are asking: Will I be able to switch off at all? Shouldn't I be doing better in these times... ??? 

Wesley Paul, the keynote speaker at HOT/Hotels Tomorrow, advises managers to abandon outdated planning models and pursue agile strategies in order to keep pace with such rapid change. Six weeks ago in Paris, he explained this new world, its uncertainties and the consequences for the industry. We are sharing his keynote with our subscribers today, in a slightly edited video version. It's not a summer fairytale, but it is an illuminating moment in the information overflow. 

Journalists don't dream, they follow reality. And Google wants to change that - with its AI, Gemini. The idea is that the guest is no longer supposed to find his destination by doing the internet surfing himself. Rather, he is expected to swallow the results presented to him by an invisible algorithm. Of course, the AI suggestions also contain Google Ads. The giant is about to completely change search and bookings! The victims are travellers and smaller hotels. Sarah Douag also finds this devastating. 

Everything is in flux, and above all the stock market. But Richard Clarke from the research house Bernstein in London sheds light on more than share values and price manoeuvres. For decades, many companies, including those in the hotel industry, have passed the beauty contest on the stock market based on their growth rates. Now the stock market wants to know how robust, scalable and competitive your business model is in the industry environment! Beatrix Boutonnet reports.  

Dear Insider,

At midnight on 1 August, the Spanish government will implement a crack down: Any short-term tourist landlord who is not officially registered by this time will be removed from the central database. So far, only 13% have registered. This means a whole 87% have just one week left. This corresponds to 1.1 million beds - which would then simply disappear. In the middle of the season. This has all the trappings of a great drama - and all of it to the advantage of the hotel industry. Set the clock! Sarah Douag brings us the details. 

Almost all of Europe will be going on summer holidays in the coming weeks; certain destinations and cities will be overcrowded again. How high is the burden on local residents in popular cities with a lot of tourism? Austria's eight provincial capitals are looking for and finding solutions, e.g. "Grätzel Tourism". This is "life-seeing" instead of "sightseeing". Fred Fettner has collected figures, examples and opinions on how to reinvent the "experience value" for locals. 

Radisson didn't have to invent anything new, but jumped in at the deep end: The chain was determined to show its investors two sustainable hotels with verified net-zero status - not according to its own standards, but also according to the methodology of third parties. The two buildings in Manchester and Oslo already serve as learning platforms. Head of Sustainability Inge Huijbrechts on her experiences: "I would never claim that we are perfect. But we are transparent. We share what worked and what didn't, and we keep asking ourselves: Can we go any further?"

Dear Insider,

Can you imagine that there is a shortage of staff in the Indian hotel industry? With 1.4 billion people and 500 million potential travellers? Puneet Chhatwal, CEO Taj Hotel Group, has to find 100,000 employees within five years in view of the planned expansion. He is currently building 50 "skilling" centres in the country. It will be incredibly hard work. But it increases the ethical value of the company, the economic value of the properties and the added value in market capitalisation. Taj's market cap has risen by 850% in the past five years, he says.           

Why am I telling you this? It is always worth thinking outside the box. Puneet made his career in development at Rezidor, was CEO of Steigenberger Hotels for five years and is now a VIP in India himself. The Indian European or European Indian has his own opinion on real estate: Asset heavy secures every company, Asset light does not pay off.